SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity from central into eastern CO this afternoon. Hail is possible with these storms early, with damaging gusts more likely later this afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging gust will likely continue in western KS. DISCUSSION…The air mass across eastern CO continues to destabilize amid strong daytime heating ahead of a shortwave trough moving through the Four Corner vicinity. A corridor of slightly higher dewpoints exists along a weak front that parallels the Palmer Divide in CO and then arcs back northeast through northwest KS. Mesoanalysis estimates that minimal convective inhibition exists along and north of this corridor, while some inhibition still remains within the more mixed boundary layer farther south. Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to gradually increase over the higher terrain before then moving eastward into the lower elevations. Instability will remain modest, with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE anticipated across much of eastern CO this afternoon. Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen slightly ahead of the approaching shortwave, which, when combined with the more easterly surface winds, will result in vertically veering wind profile. The initial development may be more discrete, with hail as the primary risk. Thereafter, one or more bowing segments may develop, with wind gusts becoming the primary risk. The west-to-east orientated surface boundary may act as a favored corridor for upscale growth and forward propagation.
