SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity from central into eastern CO this afternoon. Hail is
possible with these storms early, with damaging gusts more likely
later this afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging gust will
likely continue in western KS.
DISCUSSION…The air mass across eastern CO continues to destabilize
amid strong daytime heating ahead of a shortwave trough moving
through the Four Corner vicinity. A corridor of slightly higher
dewpoints exists along a weak front that parallels the Palmer Divide
in CO and then arcs back northeast through northwest KS.
Mesoanalysis estimates that minimal convective inhibition exists
along and north of this corridor, while some inhibition still
remains within the more mixed boundary layer farther south.
Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to gradually increase over
the higher terrain before then moving eastward into the lower
elevations. Instability will remain modest, with around 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE anticipated across much of eastern CO this afternoon.
Southwesterly mid-level flow will strengthen slightly ahead of the
approaching shortwave, which, when combined with the more easterly
surface winds, will result in vertically veering wind profile. The
initial development may be more discrete, with hail as the primary
risk. Thereafter, one or more bowing segments may develop, with wind
gusts becoming the primary risk. The west-to-east orientated surface
boundary may act as a favored corridor for upscale growth and
forward propagation.